Why are developers so bad at estimating time?

I always have a hard time estimating time.

I first read about the concept of "flow" in FatLemon's blog and agrees with how developers work. Non-developers should understand how developers work in order to understand why time is estimated as such.

Paraphrasing from FatLemon:

When a software developer thinks up an estimated time to complete a development task - they’re thinking solely in “flow” time.

Paraphrasing from Peopleware on what is "flow" time:

During single-minded work time, people are ideally in a state that psychologists call flow. Flow is a condition of deep, nearly meditative involvement. In this state, there is a gentle sense of euphoria, and one is largely unaware of the passage of time: “I began to work. I looked up, and three hours had passed.”  There is no consciousness of effort; the work just seems to, well, flow. You’ve been in this state often, so we don’t have to describe it to you.

Not all work roles require that you attain a state of flow in order to be productive, but for anyone involved in engineering, design, development, writing, or like tasks, flow is a must. These are high-momentum tasks. It’s only when you’re in flow that the work goes well.

In other words, the model that software developers work in is unlike a conventional model. The amount of work accomplished by a developer is NOT proportional to the number of hours put in. What matters is the amount of time that a developer is working at full potential.

An hour in flow really accomplishes something, but ten six-minute work periods sandwiched between eleven interruptions won’t accomplish anything.

So when a developer estimates that a task require an hour, he means an uninterrupted hour.

Microsoft Steve Ballmer critiques Apple

Ballmer critiques Apple: “$500 more to get a logo”

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, described Apple's products as merely higher priced with the same (computer) hardware, and consumers are paying $500 for the partially eaten apple..

Why do I feel that it is yet another loser comment?

Isn't a brand name important anymore? Isn't it worth to pay more for something of higher quality that we can trust and rely on?

 

From what he said about iPhone 1.0 back then, we have learnt that we do not need to take his words seriously..

What really is iPhone 3.0 ?

 

Copy & paste, MMS, Bluetooth A2DP audio, and all other features are what we have been using in all other smartphone platforms.

All features announced during the iPhone 3.0 sneak preview event are all common features we have seen in Symbian, Window Mobile, BlackBerry and other smartphones. They are just a bunch of common features, so easily explained that a simple changelog text file should suffice. I shall still list them:

1. Copy & paste text/photos
2. SMS forwarding
3. Deleting individual SMS
4. MMS
5. In-app purchase
6. Push notification
7. Peer-to-peer Bluetooth
8. Bluetooth A2DP Audio
9. Safari login credentials
10. Device search
11. 3G tethering

If the features are so common, then what really is iPhone 3.0 that makes everyone so excited ?

iPhone 3.0 is really just another perfect product by Apple.

In every version of iPhone (3.0/2.0/1.0), it is a perfect phone (yes, you can still improve what is already perfect). What Apple does is that in whatever features they promised to release, they make sure that it is perfect and it is something both themselves and the users would be proud of.

When everyone is proud of, it is perfect.

We have seen how proud Apple is when they announced the phones and its new features. They would always present enthusiastically and proudly, such that it makes me forgotten that I had used copy & paste on my first Symbian phone 8 years ago. When developers can present what they have so proudly and confidently, it must be good. I know that.

And we can see end-users are so proud of the phone as they would always pull it out of their pocket (and do nothing but to show off). In iPhone 2.0, many users proudly live without cut & paste or SMS forwarding, and they could still forgive Apple for the lack of these, as in their mind the iPhone is perfect in what it has.

There is really not much to talk about the new features in more details than what was presented in Apple Keynote. We simply need to know it is another perfect phone with the list of new features as stated.